Nielsen ratings tell many stories

For years, WDBJ (Channel 7) boasted that it broadcast the most-watched newscast in Virginia. Over time, viewership eroded, andthat slogan was downgraded to "the region's most-watched newscast."

If ratings keep sliding the way they have been, the day mightcome when WDBJ can't even claim to be the most-watched newscast inthe Roanoke-Lynchburg market.

The good news for WDBJ is that more people still watch its 6 p.m.newscast than watch either WSLS' (Channel 10) or WSET's (Channel13), according to newly released ratings from the Nielsen Co. ButChannel 7's lead, which was once 2-to-1 over its competitors, isdown to just a few share points.

Even worse news for WDBJ is that among viewers younger than 54,the station ranks third. Advertisers throw fistfuls of money at the18-35 market, a demographic Channel 7 is having difficultyreaching.

It should be said, however, that ratings are such an inexactscience, Channel 7's bad February numbers could be something of anaberration. Ratings are notorious for fluctuating wildly from onesweeps period to the next, which gives WDBJ Vice President andGeneral Manager Jeff Marks hope for better future results.

"We're still the market leader," Marks said. "We've got a coupleof soft spots, but other demographics are strong. Last February [of2010] our numbers were sky-high. This [latest ratings book] doesnot distress us."

Yet, changes are coming to WDBJ. Marks confirmed Wednesday thatnews director Amy Morris is leaving. Longtime anchorman KeithHumphry is retiring at the end of May, following the next sweepsperiod.

The traditional 6 p.m. newscast, which has seen viewershipdecline significantly on a local and national level, is not theratings draw it used to be. Still, it is the flagship local programand cash cow of local stations. Good ratings and good demographicsare still important to advertisers, the lifeblood of TV stations.

The good, the bad

Station managers will tell you that ratings can be parsed to makeany station look good -- or bad.

"I could wear the hat of any station and say something good aboutthe numbers," said Randy Smith, WSET's general manager.

At Channel 13, one could easily find the good and the bad. Thegood is obvious: WSET is in second place behind WDBJ in totalviewers at 6 p.m. (85,000 viewers to 70,000), and it leads amongthe under-54 crowd.

The bad: WSET's showing is based almost wholly on its dominanceon the Lynchburg side of this hyphenated market. In Lynchburg, WSETgets 60 percent of the news viewers. In Roanoke, Channel 13'snewscast barely registers, drawing only 2,000 viewers compared with35,000 for Channel 7 and 32,000 for Channel 10.

Likewise, Channel 7 can see the good: WDBJ not only leads themarket and in Roanoke, but it also attracts 31,000 more totalviewers than its Roanoke competition, WSLS, whose 6 p.m. audienceis 54,000 viewers. The station leads the overall news ratings frommorning to night -- 6 a.m., noon, 5 p.m. and 11 p.m.

The bad is obvious, too: WDBJ's overall lead is as small as ithas been since at least the early 1960s, when it overtook WSLS andhas led ever since. Channel 7 has lost nearly half its viewerssince the heyday of the 1970s through the '90s. With the decline inyounger viewers, future dominance is questionable, if not unlikely.

The good for Channel 10: WSLS can brag that it leads WDBJ inyounger viewers and it saw its share of overall audience tickupward. The bad: The overall viewership numbers have been stagnantfor years. Closing the gap on WDBJ has had more to do with Channel7's fall than Channel 10's gains.

Also, WSLS management has boasted about its younger viewershipfor years, but that has never translated into long-term viewershipgains.

More competition

Because younger viewers are less likely to fill out a handwrittenNielsen diary -- which is how the company still comes up with itsratings for smaller markets such as Roanoke, even in a digital age -- WSLS management thinks its younger audience might beundercounted.

"It's a skewed sample," said WSLS General Manager Warren Fiihr,who is leaving the station for a job in Sacramento, Calif., withComcast Spotlight.

In an older market such as Roanoke, does having younger viewersmatter that much?

"Older audiences still purchase products," Fiihr said, "and babyboomers have the majority of the money and disposable incomes.Advertisers, though, buy based on [audiences of] 18 to 49 and 25 to54. That's what Madison Avenue dictates, not me."

WSET's Smith said that local stations are working in an era ofincreased competition from cable and Internet. It's not like theold days, when viewers had just three choices on the dial.

"The days of having a single dominating station are pretty muchgone in most markets," he said. "WDBJ is still number one in totaleyeballs, but that does not translate into the most dollars.Obviously, the landscape has changed tremendously."

Of course, ratings are much like what Mark Twain said about theweather. If you don't like what you see in this ratings book, waituntil the next sweeps period, when it all could change.